Wednesday, November 8

If Democrats are to win the mid-term elections...

The US mid-term election results will be out soon. Looks like Democrats are ahead in the polls. Who would be the likely winners and losers?

Losers
  • Oil Majors: Democrats may start to dismantle a number of Oil/Energy-friendly legistrations put in by Bush and the Republicans. Also, expect more regulations that would hamper domestic explorations.
  • Pharmaceuticals: expect that Democrats will push Medicare to directly negotiate pricing with the drugmakers, which would benefit generic drugmakers and hurt Pharmaceuticals.
  • Discount retailers: Democrats, leaning towards anti-China policies and protectionism, may introduce legistrations that limit imports from China and development countries. These retailers will suffer from a reduced supply of cheap imports.

Winners

  • Alternative Energy: In general, anti-bush/oil implies pro-alternative energy. Also, Democrats are believed to be more concerned about pollution and global warming, and this favors alternative energy development.
  • Metals: possible protectionist legislation will favor metal stocks, e.g. US Steel.

Can you think or other winners and losers?

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